Hurricane Center, Miami, FL outlook

[Techman]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

000 ABNT20 KNHC 191745 TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven

142 AXNT20 KNHC 191800 TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 93W from 22N southward, passing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 19.6N. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 150 nm of the center in the northwest quadrant. Other isolated moderate is elsewhere from 26N southward from the Yucatan Channel westward. Fresh to strong wind speeds are within 60 nm on either side of the tropical wave. The sea heights were ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet earlier, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect those sea heights to increase with time. The overall precipitation pattern is becoming organized. The environmental conditions appear to be favorable for more development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form later today or on Saturday, while the system moves northwestward, through the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. The system is expected to move inland into northeastern Mexico, by Saturday night, ending its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. You should monitor the progress of this system, if you have interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and in the lower Texas coast. It is possible that this system may bring locally heavy rains to parts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the weekend. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 20N16W, to 17N20W 10N30W 08N40W 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W, to 10N56W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward. GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas of the Atlantic Ocean that are from 20N northward from 73W westward, in the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida from 27N southward from the Yucatan Channel eastward, and in the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 90W eastward, elsewhere, away from the precipitation that may be related to the 1011 mb developing low pressure center.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is inland, in Texas, near 27N97W. A surface trough is in the coastal plains of Texas, from the low pressure center, northeastward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is in the coastal waters/coastal plains of Texas from 94W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 27N northward, from 94W eastward.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Expect light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2 feet, away from the area of the SW corner and the tropical wave and 1011 mb developing low pressure center. 

Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the

WTNT24 KNHC 192051
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042022
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
* THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED