Techman Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 LORD 96L IS DRIVING EVERYONE NUTS YES HERES THE 2 PM EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES YES THEY SHIFTED WEST 96L tropical depression 7 looking healthy on satellite if this stays weak its gulf bound if it gets to strong its a fisher 4 pm CONE OUT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STARTING THAT FISHER BEND AT THE END Tropical Depression Seven formed this morning! It will head westward over the next few days, and it could impact several Caribbean islands. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Fiona. At this time, it's not a threat to the Gulf. Posted 9/14/22 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 49.6W ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 49.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Friday or Friday night, and be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Here's a different model set shifting toward a fisher so will just have to see the next 3 days 6:20 PM: Tropical Depression Seven has formed and is now expected to strengthen to a tropical storm within the next 12 hours meaning we will likely see the name Fiona by overnight tonight or early tomorrow. The latest forecast cone and a few of the ensemble tracks certainly raise eyebrows, but there is still a considerable possibility that this takes a hard right before making any landfall on the East Coast. Still...we watch and wait. Stay tuned. Here is the 5PM EDT Advisory on #tropicaldepression7 as it heads for the Leeward Islands. TD7 is expected to become Tropical Storm #Fiona by tomorrow afternoon before potentially making landfall somewhere near the northern Leeward Islands. Due to an abundance of dry air, wind shear and a lot of land interaction with the Caribbean Islands, this storm is not expected to become a hurricane! #scwx #ncwx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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