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 000 FXUS62 KFFC 011127 AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 727 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
Key Messages:
 - Elevated fire weather concerns for this afternoon due to gusty  west winds and low relative humidity.
 - High temperatures will be 6 to 14 degrees below seasonal averages  Today and Tuesday.
At 4 AM, a longwave trough was in place over the Great Lakes, with prevailing westerly flow on the southern periphery of the trough prevailing over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure extended from the northern Plains to the Gulf, while low pressure was in place over the Northeast. With the loss of diurnal mixing, the gusty winds we saw Sunday relaxed quickly, and the majority of stations in Georgia were reporting winds in the 0 to 5 mph range this morning. Skies conditions were fair with just a few clouds drifting around near 10000 ft AGL.
Thoughts on Today:
The primary weather concerns today will be the breezy winds and drier airmass being advected into the region. Tight south to north surface pressure gradients will allow gusty westerly winds to return today when diurnal mixing picks up between 10 AM and noon. Sustained winds of 14 to 22 mph with peak gusts near 30 mph are anticipated this afternoon. As the winds increase, relative humidity will decline, and this will lead to fire weather concerns this afternoon. Some uncertainty exists regarding the receptiveness of fuels given yesterdays rain and the relative greenness. However 10 hour fuels should dry out, and thus we issued a Fire Weather Statement for central Georgia through 7 PM this evening. Cold air advection associated with the westerly winds will keep temperatures below average today. Expect highs in the mid 60s over north Georgia an lower 70s in central Georgia (8 to 14 degrees below seasonal averages).
Tonight & Tuesday:
Surface winds should decline quickly after sunset this evening with the loss of diurnal mixing in the boundary layer. This along with continued westerly flow aloft will result in quiet weather and fair skies overnight. Low pressure should remain over the Northeast on Tuesday and this will help make Tuesday a near carbon copy of Monday. Expect breezy westerly winds in the afternoon and high temperatures that are 6 to 12 degrees below seasonal averages. Relative humidity values don`t look like they will fall quite as low as Monday, and for now it appears as though we may avoid the need for another Fire Weather Statement.
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
As the extended period begins on Tuesday night, a closed low rotating over the Great Lakes will begin to slowly move southeast towards New England with a secondary closed low digging southward down the California Coast. Between these two lows will be a high- amplitude ridge over the Central Plains and Rocky Mountains. These synoptic features will continue to meander southward through Thursday, but the movement will be very slow overall, resulting in a stagnant omega block pattern for the first part of the extended period. The Southeast will be situated near the outer periphery of the broad trough around the closed low over the Great Lakes. Much of the region will also be positioned underneath northwesterly flow in the descending branch of the high-amplitude ridge. Several shortwaves are expected to round the base of the trough to the northeast. While these types of flow patterns can often be favorable for "ridge-rider" disturbances that are capable of producing severe weather, in this case, the persistent northwesterly flow will continue to usher in dry, continental air into the forecast area. Moreover, subsidence will be ongoing through much of the week under a surface high pressure associated with the ridge. As such, there will be little moisture or instability for these shortwave disturbances to work with, with dewpoints forecast to be in the 30s and low 40s, which will keep rain chances to a minimum through Thursday night.
Low temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 40s across the area each morning from on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to range from the mid 60s in far north Georgia to mid 70s in central Georgia. Highs will be warmer on Thursday afternoon as the airmass moderates, increasing into the mid to upper 70s across the area. As fuels dry out and dewpoints stay low, the potential for hazardous fire weather conditions will need to be monitored, as relative humidity values could push cortisol thresholds during the afternoon each day. By Friday, the low to the northeast will quickly move away into the Atlantic and the ridge over the Central CONUS will begin to break down. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure will move to the east of the area, with southerly low-level flow setting up on the back side of the high. Quick moisture return will follow, with dewpoints increasing back into the upper 40s by Friday afternoon and low 50s by Saturday.
PoPs will increase during the daytime on Friday and into Saturday as a mid-level disturbance and slug of mid-level moisture traverse the dampening ridge and move into Georgia from the northwest. Scattered showers will be possible in north Georgia by Friday afternoon, then across the area on Saturday. The latest guidance suggests that instability will be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorms on Saturday, as well. However, The dynamics associated with this system currently appear to be unimpressive, so an organized severe weather threat is not expected at this time.
.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
The primary aviation concern over the next 36 hours will be the breezy west winds. The strongest winds (sustained 14 to 22 kt with gusts near 30 kt) should occur between 14Z today and 01Z Tuesday, with winds picking up again after 14Z Tuesday. Outside of the winds, VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and FEW-SCT AOA 5000 ft AGL) will prevail through 18Z Tuesday.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Confidence in the wind, visibility and ceiling forecast is high.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens     47 69 46 70 /  0  0  0  0 Atlanta     48 69 48 69 /  0  0  0  0 Blairsville   41 61 41 62 /  0  0  0  0 Cartersville  44 69 44 69 /  0  0  0  0 Columbus    48 75 49 74 /  0  0  0  0 Gainesville   47 67 46 67 /  0  0  0  0 Macon      48 74 49 73 /  0  0  0  0 Rome      44 69 44 69 /  0  0  0  0 Peachtree City 46 71 46 70 /  0  0  0  0 Vidalia     51 76 52 73 /  0  0  0  0
SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Albright

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