WeatherWheeler35 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 SPC AC 021938 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible through evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Aside from minor changes to the 10 percent general thunder line, no changes have been made to the ongoing outlook with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the higher terrain of southwest TX into southern NM as of 1930z. This activity is developing within a drier, weakly unstable airmass. However, as convection shifts east toward modestly better moisture/instability, increasing potential for severe wind/hail is expected through evening. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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