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  SPC AC 021938
  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0238 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023
  Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
  ...SUMMARY...  A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be  possible through evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas.
  ...Southern High Plains...
  Aside from minor changes to the 10 percent general thunder line, no  changes have been made to the ongoing outlook with the 20z update.  Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the higher terrain of  southwest TX into southern NM as of 1930z. This activity is  developing within a drier, weakly unstable airmass. However, as  convection shifts east toward modestly better moisture/instability,  increasing potential for severe wind/hail is expected through  evening.
  ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/
  ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening...  The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low  over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and  another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture  extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX,  within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed  maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the  southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from  the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate  wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases  in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this  afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ  soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is  already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon  surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix  through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective  inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across  eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough.
  The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in  combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively  straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and  perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will  be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though  isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell  structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The  severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish  by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist  overnight.
  NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z  IMG_1507.thumb.png.ea3f6900cec7eb915c124ab4247815c6.png

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