Weather discussion

[WeatherWheeler35]

  SPC AC 020730
  Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0230 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023
  Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
  ...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, strong/damaging wind  gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the  southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
  ...Synopsis...  A mid/upper-level low over southern CA is forecast to eject  northeastward toward the Great Basin on Thursday as a negatively  tilted trough. Ahead of this feature, a midlevel shortwave trough  and attendant speed maximum (which emanated out of the subtropical  Pacific) is forecast to move from far west TX toward the  southern/central Great Plains through the day. A surface low is  forecast to gradually deepen across southeast CO, as a dryline  becomes better defined during the afternoon from the eastern TX  Panhandle/western OK into northwest TX and the Edwards Plateau.
  ...Southern/central Plains...  Widespread mid/high cloudiness will likely spread across much of the  central/southern Plains in association with the subtropical  shortwave trough, but some filtered heating of an increasingly moist  boundary layer will result in moderate destabilization east of the  dryline across parts of TX/OK, and potentially as far north as  southern/central KS. Meanwhile, moderate mid/upper-level flow will  support effective shear of 40-50 kt across parts of TX/OK, with  somewhat weaker deep-layer flow/shear expected farther north into  the central Plains. These factors will result in a conditional risk  of organized convection along/east of the dryline. 
  Some uncertainties remain regarding the severe potential associated  with this system. While at least isolated development is expected  along the dryline, potentially limited heating across the warm  sector could hamper storm coverage and longevity to some extent.  Also, the subtropical shortwave trough will likely be accompanied by  somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates than what is typically observed  for Great Plains severe events. 
  However, given the relatively favorable buoyancy and deep-layer  shear, and potentially favorable timing of the approaching shortwave  trough, development of a few supercells and/or organized clusters is  expected during the afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk of  large hail and at least localized severe/damaging gusts. Also, a  southerly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across OK and  southern KS by early evening, which would enlarge low-level  hodographs and support the threat for a couple tornadoes across the  northern portion of the Slight Risk area. 
  Further strengthening of the low-level jet may support MCS  development Thursday night into northeast OK/southeast KS, with some  lingering severe threat possible into the overnight hours.
  ..Dean.. 05/02/2023
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  NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z