WeatherWheeler35 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 SPC AC 020730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low over southern CA is forecast to eject northeastward toward the Great Basin on Thursday as a negatively tilted trough. Ahead of this feature, a midlevel shortwave trough and attendant speed maximum (which emanated out of the subtropical Pacific) is forecast to move from far west TX toward the southern/central Great Plains through the day. A surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across southeast CO, as a dryline becomes better defined during the afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK into northwest TX and the Edwards Plateau. ...Southern/central Plains... Widespread mid/high cloudiness will likely spread across much of the central/southern Plains in association with the subtropical shortwave trough, but some filtered heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer will result in moderate destabilization east of the dryline across parts of TX/OK, and potentially as far north as southern/central KS. Meanwhile, moderate mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 40-50 kt across parts of TX/OK, with somewhat weaker deep-layer flow/shear expected farther north into the central Plains. These factors will result in a conditional risk of organized convection along/east of the dryline. Some uncertainties remain regarding the severe potential associated with this system. While at least isolated development is expected along the dryline, potentially limited heating across the warm sector could hamper storm coverage and longevity to some extent. Also, the subtropical shortwave trough will likely be accompanied by somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates than what is typically observed for Great Plains severe events. However, given the relatively favorable buoyancy and deep-layer shear, and potentially favorable timing of the approaching shortwave trough, development of a few supercells and/or organized clusters is expected during the afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk of large hail and at least localized severe/damaging gusts. Also, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across OK and southern KS by early evening, which would enlarge low-level hodographs and support the threat for a couple tornadoes across the northern portion of the Slight Risk area. Further strengthening of the low-level jet may support MCS development Thursday night into northeast OK/southeast KS, with some lingering severe threat possible into the overnight hours. ..Dean.. 05/02/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.