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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat May 06 2023
Valid 12Z Sat May 06 2023 - 12Z Mon May 08 2023
...Severe storms and heavy rainfall to occur in parts of the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley this weekend...
...Unseasonably cool in the West with showers and mountain snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies...
...Expanding dome of June-like temperatures in the Nation's Heartland; above normal temperatures to return to the East Coast by Sunday and into Monday...
A stormy and wet weekend is on tap from the Northwest and Northern Plains to the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley. The spotlight will shine brightest today on the Southern Plains where the dryline will be the trigger for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3) from the Red River on south into north-central Texas. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and significant hail. Severe storms will also be possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley where a Marginal Risk (threat level 1) is in place. Both of these areas not only are at risk for severe weather, but flash flooding as well. The Weather Prediction Center has hoisted a pair of Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall in these same regions for Saturday. Farther north, an elongated frontal boundary will spark showers and storms from the northern High Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. The SPC does have a Slight Risk for portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, which includes portions of the St. Louis metro area. By Sunday, the frontal system in the Midwest will have made some progress east, expanding the footprint for possible severe weather and flash flooding more into the Ohio Valley. The SPC does have a Slight Risk for parts of the mid-Missouri River Valley on Sunday, and WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from eastern Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley.
The other region witnessing a wet and active weather pattern this weekend is the Northwest, which includes the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. A prolonged period of upper level troughing delivers a steady dose of Pacific moisture into the northwestern U.S.. Temperatures are cool enough in mountain ranges such as the northern Sierra Nevada and into the northern Rockies of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming for 4-8" of snowfall looks to accumulate over the weekend. In the valleys and along the Pacific Northwest coast, periods of rain are forecast today with a brief lull (although light showers are still anticipated) into Sunday. Portions of the interior Northwest remain under Flood Watches through Saturday due to the ongoing periods of rain and additional snowmelt leading to some river and stream flooding. The aforementioned upper trough will keep temperatures across the western third of the U.S. below normal (daily max temperature departures 10-20 degrees below normal in California) through the weekend and into the start of next week.
While the western third of the country witnesses cooler than normal conditions, the footprint of warmer than normal temperatures will continue to grow east of the Rockies and along the East Coast. Saturday's daily max temperatures in the southern and central Plains look to soar into the low 90s, while temperatures along the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas approach triple digits. These temperatures, particularly in the central Plains, could break daily record highs on Saturday. A near carbon-copy forecast is likely in these regions on Sunday, but temperatures continue to heat up in the Midwest and along the East Coast. By Monday, above normal temperatures will have engulfed just about the entire two-thirds of the Lower 48.
 Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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