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  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL  ACUS48 KWNS 060848  SPC AC 060848
  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0348 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023
  Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
  ...DISCUSSION...  ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...  An upper-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward across the  mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest from early to mid week. A  moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Southeast into the  mid Mississippi Valley. The moist airmass may advect northwestward  into the mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be  possible across parts of this moist airmass both Tuesday afternoon  and Wednesday afternoon. However, any severe threat is expected to  remain isolated due to the presence of the upper-level ridge. 
  ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...  On Thursday, an upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward  into the central High Plains. A band of large-scale ascent,  associated with the upper-level system, could move eastward across  the central Plains Thursday afternoon. This would be favorable for  thunderstorm development, especially as the airmass destabilizes  Thursday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms would be possible during  the late afternoon and evening from Nebraska into Iowa. However,  there is considerable variance among the models on the magnitude of  instability ahead of the system and timing of the upper-level low.  Will wait for run-to-run consistency before considering a threat  area for the central Plains on Thursday.
  On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level low is forecast to move  slowly eastward across the north-central states. Thunderstorm  development would be possible ahead of the system each afternoon and  evening from the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley.  While severe storms seem possible, uncertainty concerning  instability and timing is substantial at this time in the Day 4 to 8  period.
  ..Broyles.. 05/06/2023

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