weather center Weather fire discussion

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  ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL  FNUS21 KWNS 061638
  Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  1138 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023
  Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
  ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO  AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
  The previous outlook remains on track. No changes were made to the  ongoing forecast.
  ..Marsh.. 05/06/2023
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023/
  ...Synopsis...  In the mid-levels, broad troughing centered over the Rockies will  continue to slowly weaken as southwesterly flow lingers over the  High Plains. The moderate flow aloft, in conjunction with a modest  lee low and trailing dryline, will aid in sustained downslope  surface winds and stronger gusts through the afternoon. With warm  temperatures and low humidity expected, critical fire-weather  concerns should develop over portions of NM and CO.
  ...NM into portions of southeastern CO...  Through the morning hours, mid-level flow of 30-40 kt should  gradually begin to mix down to the surface as temperatures quickly  warm. Aided by the west to east pressure gradient behind the lee low  and trailing dryline, southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph  should develop by midday. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are  expected to continue with afternoon RH values of 7-15% expected  owing to warm temperatures and the well-mixed air mass. Elevated and  critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over dry fuels. The  most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions is over  portions of central and eastern NM, into far southern CO, where the  strongest winds and lowest RH overlap through much of the afternoon.
  Some fire-weather threat may extend farther eastward into portions  of the OK/TX Panhandles, immediately behind the trailing dryline.  However, precipitation within the last several days has likely  tempered fuels such that fire-weather concerns should remain more  localized, despite favorable meteorological conditions.
  ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
  CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)    

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