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  SPC AC 131615
  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  1115 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023
  Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  EVENING FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  ...SUMMARY...  Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large  hail will be possible today from Iowa into central Illinois.  Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across southern  Oklahoma and East Texas as well as the eastern Virginia/North  Carolina border vicinity.
  ...IA into the Mid MS Valley...  Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles northwest of OFK  in far northeast NE. A cold front extends southward from this low  through central KS and then back southwestward from north-central  trough southwest OK. Surface pattern east of the low is a bit more  complex, with a warm front extending from the low southeastward  across southwest IA and into north-central MO. This warm front  intersects a residual stationary boundary near DSM, with this  stationary boundary continuing eastward across the OH Valley. 
  The surface low is forecast to make modest eastward progress  throughout the day, with the warm front continuing to move northward  as well. However, the presence of the stationary boundary may  impeded the northern progression of the warm front somewhat.  Expectation is a corridor or mid to upper 60s dewpoints to extend  from east-central MO/southern IL northwestward through central IA.  This corridor will likely be south of the warm front, but east of  dryline-like boundary that is expected to mix eastward with time.  Moderate buoyancy is anticipated within this corridor as well,  contributing to likely thunderstorm development as the boundary  moves eastward. 
  Southeasterly surface winds will beneath modest westerlies will  contribute to moderate deep-layer vertical shear and the potential  for more organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards  across IA. Strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE greater  than 150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity throughout the corridor of  southeasterly winds could increase what would otherwise be a low  probability tornado risk given anticipated shear magnitudes. Farther  south, surface winds will be weaker with a more outflow-dominant  storm structure anticipated. Here, some clustering is also possible,  with storms then forward-propagating into west-central IL.
  ...Central/Southern OK...Arklatex...East TX...  Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon  from central OK eastward into the Arklatex and East TX amid the  tropical air mass in place. Vertical shear is weak, limiting storm  organization and the overall severe potential. Even so, a few  water-loaded downbursts and maybe even a tornado or two remain  possible. This low-probability tornado threat appears maximized  across southern OK, where greater low-level vorticity is expected.
  ...VA Tidewater...Northeast NC...  An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England,  with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary  will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA this  afternoon, resulting in thunderstorm development. Strengthening  westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates  may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells.  Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening.
  ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/13/2023
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