WeatherWheeler35 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 SPC AC 151612 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing a few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley vicinity. ...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity... An upper ridge will persist over the Southeast much of today, while a rather nondescript/weak flow regime remains in place across the Plains. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is featured over eastern OK late this morning. This feature will slowly migrate east/northeast through southern MO through the period. Abundant boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F) and heating into upper 70s/low 80s F will support weak to moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV. Deep-layer flow will remain light, though the MCV will likely enhance low/midlevel winds modestly, providing around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. This should support some loosely organized, sporadically strong cells/bows. Strong/locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with this activity. While low-level flow will remain very weak, vertically veering winds in the lowest 1-2 km will produce very modestly curved hodographs with some minor SRH ahead of the MCV in conjunction with mean mixing ratios near 15-16 g/kg. Tornado potential is expected to remain very low, but a funnel cloud or brief spin-up could occur this afternoon, mainly across southern MO. Further east toward Middle TN into adjacent portions of northern AL/extreme northwest GA, shear profile will be even more modest, mainly relegating afternoon activity to pulse-like convection. However, stronger instability and a more deeply mixed boundary-layer could support potential for water-loaded downdrafts and isolated downbursts producing locally strong gusts with any more transient intense cells this afternoon. The strongest cells could also produce small hail. ..Leitman/Moore.. 05/15/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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