WeatherWheeler35 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 SPC AC 231947 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across west to central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. A few intense storms are possible this evening. These will be capable of producing very large hail to around baseball size, severe wind gusts to around 80 mph, and brief tornadoes. ...Discussion... Aside from minor adjustments to the thunder line in a few areas, substantial changes to the outlook do not appear necessary at this time, as the current forecast continues to reflect ongoing and anticipated convective evolution. The most substantial change to the severe risk areas at this time, is to extend the 5% hail probability area northwestward across Florida into the Panhandle, where a few storms have occasionally intensified to levels consistent with hail in excess of 1" in diameter. ..Goss.. 05/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains to central TX... With widespread upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points established and steeper mid-level lapse rates (around 1 C/km greater) sampled in 12Z MAF/AMA soundings compared to yesterday, larger MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg is anticipated at peak heating ahead of the dryline in west to central TX. This will aid in a broader swath of severe thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon and evening relative to yesterday. A trio of minor MCVs are evident in water vapor/radar imagery...over east TX, north-central OK, and northeast NM. The latter impulse in conjunction with terrain enhancement and weak convergence along the dryline should aid in scattered thunderstorms forming towards mid-afternoon from northeast NM to the South Plains, with isolated thunderstorms also over the Trans-Pecos. Despite weak SRH initially, 30-35 kt effective bulk shear with relatively straight-line hodographs should foster outflow-dominated, splitting supercells with a primary threat of very large hail. Morning CAM guidance is varied in the duration of discrete supercell mode but the consensus appears to indicate a quicker transition to upscale growth relative to yesterday's event. The most likely area for MCS occurrence appears to be across the Big Country vicinity, with severe wind gust potential likely lingering longer tonight (wind reports yesterday ending around 02Z) and farther southeast into central TX, owing to the greater buoyancy today. ...FL... An MCV remains anchored over west-central AL with a low-amplitude trough extending south into the northern Gulf. Ahead of this, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northeast Gulf and will also occur in a few hours along the sea breezes across the peninsula. Weak mid-level lapse rates sampled in 12Z soundings will continue to be a limiting factor to more substantial instability, but 20-30 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell clustering with a primary threat of sporadic downbursts producing locally damaging winds. ...Northeast NV/northwest UT and southeast ID... An upper trough with a series of embedded shortwave impulses will remain anchored from the Canadian Rockies south into northern CA. The fringe of enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies should overlap a weak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE from 250-750 J/kg over the northern Great Basin this afternoon. Scattered multicell clusters are expected in this corridor, with the potential for isolated severe gusts and small hail. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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