Weather outlook, discussion

[WeatherWheeler35]

  SPC AC 231947
  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0247 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
  Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN  NEW MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
  ...SUMMARY...  Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across west to  central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. A few intense  storms are possible this evening. These will be capable of producing  very large hail to around baseball size, severe wind gusts to around  80 mph, and brief tornadoes.
  ...Discussion...  Aside from minor adjustments to the thunder line in a few areas,  substantial changes to the outlook do not appear necessary at this  time, as the current forecast continues to reflect ongoing and  anticipated convective evolution.
  The most substantial change to the severe risk areas at this time,  is to extend the 5% hail probability area northwestward across  Florida into the Panhandle, where a few storms have occasionally  intensified to levels consistent with hail in excess of 1" in  diameter.
  ..Goss.. 05/23/2023
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023/
  ...Southern High Plains to central TX...  With widespread upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points established  and steeper mid-level lapse rates (around 1 C/km greater) sampled in  12Z MAF/AMA soundings compared to yesterday, larger MLCAPE from  2000-3000 J/kg is anticipated at peak heating ahead of the dryline  in west to central TX. This will aid in a broader swath of severe  thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon and evening  relative to yesterday.
  A trio of minor MCVs are evident in water vapor/radar imagery...over  east TX, north-central OK, and northeast NM. The latter impulse in  conjunction with terrain enhancement and weak convergence along the  dryline should aid in scattered thunderstorms forming towards  mid-afternoon from northeast NM to the South Plains, with isolated  thunderstorms also over the Trans-Pecos. Despite weak SRH initially,  30-35 kt effective bulk shear with relatively straight-line  hodographs should foster outflow-dominated, splitting supercells  with a primary threat of very large hail. Morning CAM guidance is  varied in the duration of discrete supercell mode but the consensus  appears to indicate a quicker transition to upscale growth relative  to yesterday's event. The most likely area for MCS occurrence  appears to be across the Big Country vicinity, with severe wind gust  potential likely lingering longer tonight (wind reports yesterday  ending around 02Z) and farther southeast into central TX, owing to  the greater buoyancy today.
  ...FL...  An MCV remains anchored over west-central AL with a low-amplitude  trough extending south into the northern Gulf. Ahead of this,  scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northeast Gulf and will  also occur in a few hours along the sea breezes across the  peninsula. Weak mid-level lapse rates sampled in 12Z soundings will  continue to be a limiting factor to more substantial instability,  but 20-30 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell  clustering with a primary threat of sporadic downbursts producing  locally damaging winds.
  ...Northeast NV/northwest UT and southeast ID...  An upper trough with a series of embedded shortwave impulses will  remain anchored from the Canadian Rockies south into northern CA.  The fringe of enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies should  overlap a weak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE from 250-750  J/kg over the northern Great Basin this afternoon. Scattered  multicell clusters are expected in this corridor, with the potential  for isolated severe gusts and small hail.
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