Weather outlook, discussion

[WeatherWheeler35]

  SPC AC 261952
  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0252 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023
  Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
  ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
  ...SUMMARY...  A couple of tornadoes, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter, and  severe thunderstorm winds of 60 to 70 mph remain possible this  afternoon/evening across parts of eastern New Mexico into west  Texas. Large hail and a few severe gusts will also be possible from  eastern Colorado to southeastern Montana.
  ...20Z Update...  A small expansion has been made to the Slight Risk across central  into eastern NM. Convection developing across the higher terrain  just east of Albuquerque has quickly strengthened, and the  environment downstream into east-central/southeastern NM appears  favorable for large to very large hail this afternoon and evening  with any sustained supercells. A couple tornadoes will also be  possible, mainly this evening, as a southeasterly low-level jet  modestly strengthens. The best tornado potential will probably  remain focused with any supercell that can remain anchored along or  perhaps just north of an outflow boundary from prior convection. For  more details on the short-term severe threat across this region, see  Mesoscale Discussion 874.
  No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the  northern/central Plains. High-based thunderstorms have developed  over the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and this activity  will spread generally north-northeastward through the rest of the  afternoon/evening while posing a threat for both severe wind gusts  and large hail. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 873 for more details  on the near-term severe threat across eastern WY/CO and vicinity.
  ..Gleason.. 05/26/2023
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023/
  ...Eastern NM/West TX...  Morning surface analysis shows a remnant outflow boundary from  overnight storms has pushed southwestward across eastern NM, with  the boundary and low-level moisture banked against the Sacramento  Mountains. Visible imagery shows that the low clouds should slowly  erode through the early afternoon, leading to a corridor of backed  low-level winds, considerable moisture, and moderate CAPE from east  of ABQ into southeast NM. Also, water vapor loop and model guidance  may indicate a subtle mid-level shortwave trough over south-central  NM that will overspread the area helping to encourage convective  initiation.
  All available CAM solutions develop widely scattered supercells by  mid-afternoon along this corridor. Forecast soundings show steep  mid-level lapse rates and sufficient bulk shear for organized  supercells capable of very large hail. Hodograph shapes enlarge  after 00z as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. This may  encourage the development of a couple tornadoes as the storms track  southeastward. Similar to the last several days, isolated but  intense storms may persist well after dark and spread into west TX.
  ...Eastern CO/WY and southeast MT...  Strong heating is occurring today from the foothills of central CO  northward into eastern WY and southeast MT. Dewpoints well into the  50s, combined with cool mid-level temperatures (-12 to -15 at 500mb)  and steep lapse rates will provide a favorable environment for  scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer vertical shear is not  very strong, so organized multicell and only isolated supercell  structures are expected. Nevertheless, large hail will be possible  in the stronger storms throughout this area. Some clustering and  upscale growth may also result in damaging winds as this evening.
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